what would require more land to grow food crops

Course 2: Increase Food Production without Expanding Agricultural Land (Synthesis)

{"Glossary":{"51":{"name":"agricultural tree crops","description":"Trees cultivated for their food, cultural, or economical values. These include oil palm, rubber, cocoa, cashew, mango, oranges (citrus), plantain, assistant, and coconut.\r\n"},"94":{"proper noun":"biodiversity intactness","clarification":"The proportion and affluence of a location\u0027s original woods community (number of species and individuals) that remain.\u0026nbsp;\r\n"},"95":{"name":"biodiversity significance","description":"The importance of an area for the persistence of woods-dependent species based on range rarity.\r\north"},"98":{"name":"carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e)","clarification":"Carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) is a mensurate used to aggregate emissions from various greenhouse gases (GHGs) on the footing of their 100-yr global warming potentials by equating non-CO2 GHGs to the equivalent corporeality of CO2.\r\n"},"99":{"proper name":"CO2e","description":"Carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) is a measure used to aggregate emissions from various greenhouse gases (GHGs) on the basis of their 100-year global warming potentials by equating non-CO2 GHGs to the equivalent amount of CO2.\r\n"},"1":{"name":"deforestation","description":"The alter from forest to another land encompass or state use, such as forest to plantation or forest to urban area.\r\due north"},"77":{"proper noun":"deforested","clarification":"The modify from wood to another land cover or land use, such as forest to plantation or wood to urban area.\r\due north"},"76":{"name":"degradation","description":"The reduction in a forest\u2019s ability to perform ecosystem services, such as carbon storage and water regulation, due to natural and anthropogenic changes.\r\due north"},"75":{"name":"degraded","description":"The reduction in a wood\u2019s ability to perform ecosystem services, such as carbon storage and water regulation, due to natural and anthropogenic changes.\r\n"},"79":{"name":"disturbances","description":"A discrete consequence that changes the structure of a forest ecosystem.\r\n"},"68":{"proper noun":"disturbed","clarification":"A detached issue that changes the structure of a wood ecosystem.\r\n"},"65":{"name":"driver of tree cover loss","description":"The direct cause of forest disturbance.\r\northward"},"70":{"name":"drivers of loss","clarification":"The direct crusade of forest disturbance.\r\northward"},"81":{"name":"drivers of tree cover loss","description":"The direct cause of wood disturbance.\r\n"},"2":{"name":"wood","description":"Forests include tree embrace greater than thirty percent tree awning density and greater than 5 meters in height every bit mapped at a 30-meter Landsat pixel scale.\r\northward"},"three":{"name":"forest concession","description":"A legal agreement allowing an entity the right to manage a public woods for product purposes.\r\due north"},"ninety":{"name":"forest concessions","clarification":"A legal agreement allowing an entity the right to manage a public forest for production purposes.\r\northward"},"53":{"proper name":"wood degradation","description":"The reduction in a forest\u2019s ability to perform ecosystem services, such as carbon storage and water regulation, due to natural and anthropogenic changes.\r\due north"},"54":{"name":"wood disturbance","clarification":"A discrete effect that changes the construction of a forest ecosystem.\r\n"},"100":{"name":"forest disturbances","clarification":"A discrete result that changes the construction of a forest ecosystem.\r\n"},"5":{"name":"forest fragmentation","description":"The breaking of large, contiguous forests into smaller pieces, with other country encompass types interspersed.\r\n"},"half dozen":{"name":"woods management program","clarification":"A programme that documents the stewardship and use of forests and other wooded land to see environmental, economic, social, and cultural objectives. Such plans are typically implemented by companies in forest concessions.\r\n"},"62":{"name":"forests","description":"Forests include tree cover greater than 30 percent tree awning density and greater than 5 meters in elevation equally mapped at a 30-meter Landsat pixel scale.\r\n"},"69":{"name":"fragmentation","description":"The breaking of large, face-to-face forests into smaller pieces, with other land encompass types interspersed.\r\n"},"80":{"proper noun":"fragmented","description":"The breaking of big, face-to-face forests into smaller pieces, with other state cover types interspersed.\r\n"},"74":{"proper name":"gain","clarification":"The establishment of tree awning in an surface area that previously had no tree encompass. Tree cover gain may indicate a number of potential activities, including natural woods growth or the ingather rotation bike of tree plantations.\r\due north"},"7":{"name":"hectare","clarification":"I hectare equals 100 square meters, 2.47 acres, or 0.01 square kilometers and is near the size of a rugby field. A football pitch is slightly smaller than a hectare (pitches are between 0.62 and 0.82 hectares).\r\north"},"66":{"proper noun":"hectares","description":"I hectare equals 100 square meters, 2.47 acres, or 0.01 square kilometers and is virtually the size of a rugby field. A football pitch is slightly smaller than a hectare (pitches are between 0.62 and 0.82 hectares).\r\n"},"67":{"name":"intact","clarification":"A wood that contains no signs of human activity or habitat fragmentation equally determined by remote sensing images and is large enough to maintain all native biological biodiversity.\r\n"},"78":{"name":"intact wood","clarification":"A woods that contains no signs of human activeness or habitat fragmentation as determined by remote sensing images and is large plenty to maintain all native biological biodiversity.\r\north"},"8":{"name":"intact forests","clarification":"A wood that contains no signs of man activity or habitat fragmentation as determined by remote sensing images and is big enough to maintain all native biological biodiversity.\r\due north"},"55":{"proper name":"land and ecology defenders","description":"People who peacefully promote and protect rights related to state and\/or the environs.\r\n"},"9":{"name":"loss driver","clarification":"The straight cause of woods disturbance.\r\due north"},"10":{"proper name":"low tree canopy density","clarification":"Less than 30 percent tree canopy density.\r\n"},"84":{"name":"managed forest concession","clarification":"Areas where governments have given rights to private companies to harvest timber and other forest products from natural forests on public lands.\r\north"},"83":{"name":"managed forest concession maps for nine countries","description":"Cameroon, Canada, Central African Republic, Democratic republic of the congo, Equatorial guinea, Gabonese republic, Indonesia, Republic of liberia, and the Congo-brazzaville\r\n"},"91":{"name":"megacities","description":"A city with more than ten million people.\r\n"},"57":{"name":"megacity","description":"A city with more than 10 million people."},"56":{"proper noun":"mosaic restoration","clarification":"Restoration that integrates trees into mixed-utilise landscapes, such as agronomical lands and settlements, where trees can support people through improved water quality, increased soil fertility, and other ecosystem services. This blazon of restoration is more than likely in deforested or degraded woods landscapes with moderate population density (10\u2013100 people per square kilometer). "},"86":{"proper noun":"natural","description":"A forest that is grown without man intervention.\r\n"},"12":{"name":"natural forest","description":"A forest that is grown without human intervention.\r\north"},"63":{"proper name":"natural forests","description":"A forest that is grown without man intervention.\r\n"},"82":{"name":"persistent gain","clarification":"Forests that take experienced one gain event from 2001 to 2016.\r\n"},"13":{"name":"persistent loss and gain","description":"Forests that have experienced ane loss or ane proceeds event from 2001 to 2016."},"97":{"proper noun":"plantation","description":"An area in which trees have been planted, generally for commercial purposes.\u0026nbsp;\r\northward"},"93":{"name":"plantations","clarification":"An area in which copse have been planted, generally for commercial purposes.\u0026nbsp;\r\northward"},"88":{"name":"planted","description":"A wood composed of trees that have been deliberately planted and\/or seeded by humans.\r\n"},"14":{"name":"planted forest","description":"A forest composed of trees that take been deliberately planted and\/or seeded by humans.\r\n"},"73":{"proper name":"planted forests","description":"A forest composed of trees that take been deliberately planted and\/or seeded by humans.\r\n"},"xv":{"name":"chief forest","description":"Old-growth forests that are typically loftier in carbon stock and rich in biodiversity. The GFR uses a humid tropical principal rainforest data prepare, representing forests in the humid tropics that take non been cleared in contempo years.\r\n"},"64":{"name":"primary forests","clarification":"Old-growth forests that are typically loftier in carbon stock and rich in biodiversity. The GFR uses a boiling tropical primary rainforest data prepare, representing forests in the humid torrid zone that have not been cleared in recent years.\r\due north"},"58":{"proper name":"production woods","description":"A woods where the principal management objective is to produce timber, pulp, fuelwood, and\/or nonwood forest products."},"89":{"name":"production forests","clarification":"A wood where the primary management objective is to produce timber, pulp, fuelwood, and\/or nonwood forest products.\r\n"},"87":{"name":"seminatural","description":"A managed forest modified by humans, which can have a different species composition from surrounding natural forests.\r\northward"},"59":{"name":"seminatural forests","clarification":"A managed forest modified past humans, which can have a different species composition from surrounding natural forests. "},"96":{"name":"shifting agriculture","description":"Temporary loss or permanent deforestation due to small- and medium-scale agriculture.\r\n"},"17":{"name":"tree cover","description":"All vegetation greater than v meters in height and may accept the course of natural forests or plantations across a range of canopy densities. Unless otherwise specified, the GFR uses greater than 30 pct tree canopy density for calculations.\r\due north"},"71":{"name":"tree cover canopy density is depression","description":"Less than 30 percent tree canopy density.\r\due north"},"60":{"name":"tree embrace proceeds","description":"The institution of tree awning in an area that previously had no tree comprehend. Tree comprehend gain may indicate a number of potential activities, including natural wood growth or the crop rotation wheel of tree plantations."},"18":{"name":"tree encompass loss","description":"The removal or mortality of tree cover, which can be due to a variety of factors, including mechanical harvesting, fire, affliction, or storm damage. As such, loss does not equate to deforestation. "},"19":{"name":"tree plantation","clarification":"An agricultural plantation of fast-growing tree species on short rotations for the production of timber, pulp, or fruit.\r\northward"},"72":{"proper name":"tree plantations","description":"An agronomical plantation of fast-growing tree species on short rotations for the production of timber, pulp, or fruit.\r\n"},"85":{"proper noun":"copse outside forests","description":"Trees found in urban areas, alongside roads, or within agricultural land\u0026nbsp;are often referred to equally Trees Outside Forests (TOF).\u202f\r\northward"}}}

Assessing the Claiming of Agricultural Land Expansion

The single almost important need for a sustainable food future is boosting the natural resource efficiency of agriculture, that is, producing more nutrient per hectare, per creature, per kilogram of fertilizer, and per liter of h2o. Such productivity gains reduce both the need for additional country and the emissions from production processes. Without the big crop and livestock productivity gains built into our baseline (based roughly on trends since 1961), land conversion would be five times greater by 2050 and GHG emissions would be more than double the level projected in our baseline (Figure 9).

In some mitigation analyses, including reports past the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), agricultural productivity gains are barely mentioned, for reasons that are unclear. Even nether our baseline projection, with its large increases in crop and livestock yields, nosotros project that agronomical country volition expand by 593 Mha to meet expected nutrient demand. Unless projected growth in demand for nutrient tin can exist moderated, to avoid country expansion both crop yields and pasture-raised livestock yields will have to grow even faster between 2010 and 2050 than they grew in previous decades.

Arguments can be fabricated for both pessimism and optimism:

• Studies accept projected that farmers could achieve far college yields than they do today. Withal, methods for estimating these "yield gaps" tend to exaggerate gap sizes and farmers tin can rarely achieve more than 80 percent of yield potential. The most comprehensive study suggests that fully closing realistic yield gaps is unlikely to be enough to see all nutrient needs.
• The massive yield gains of the l years from 1960 to 2010 were achieved in big part past doubling irrigated area and extending the utilise of scientifically bred seeds and commercial fertilizer to near of the world. Only express farther expansion of these technologies remains possible.
• Optimistically, farmers have so far connected to steadily boost yields by farming smarter in a variety of means, and new technologies are opening upwards new potential.

Whatsoever the degree of optimism, the policy implications are the same: Going forward, the globe needs to make even greater efforts to boost productivity than in the past to achieve a sustainable food time to come.

Figure ix

Improvements in ingather and livestock productivity already built into the 2050 baseline close most of the country and GHG mitigation gaps that would otherwise exist without any productivity gains after 2010

Source

GlobAgri-WRR model.

Endnotes

• 33

  AnimalChange (2012), Effigy vii. This analysis focused on efficiencies based on protein (kg of protein in output, e.k., meat, divided by kilograms of protein in feed). This analysis also noted that feed conversion efficiencies were not widely different in different regions for the reasons nosotros discuss related to backyard systems.

• 34

  Herrero et al. (2013).

• 35

  Herrero et al. (2013), Figure 4. Systems are divers in this paper, and in the then-called Seres-Steinfeld system, past whether they are grazing only, mixed systems of grazing and feeds (a broad category that varies from only x% feed to 90% feed), or entirely feed-based, and whether they are in arid, temperate, or humid zones.

• 38

  Clustered Regularly Interspaced Brusque Palindromic Repeats and CRISPR-associated.

• 39

  FAO (2011a). Preliminary results from the Global State Degradation Data System (GLADIS) cess.

• 40

  Williams and Fritschel (2012); Bunderson (2012); Pretty et al. (2006); Branca et al. (2011).

• 42

  Reij et al. (2009); Stevens et al. (2014); Reij and Winterbottom (2015).

• 43

  Aune and Bationo (2008); Vanlauwe et al. (2010).

• 44

  Giller et al. (2015); Williams and Fritschel (2012); Bationo et al. (2007).

• 45

  To develop an estimate of fallow land, nosotros deduct 80 Mha of cropland from the total approximate of rainfed cropland in Table 4.9 in Alexandratos and Bruinsma (2012) to come with land that is non double-cropped, and deduct 160 Mha of land from harvested surface area (reflecting ii crops per year on fourscore hectares of land). The resulting deviation between unmarried-cropped cropland and harvested expanse suggests effectually 350 Mha of fallow state each yr. FAO (2017a) indicates a 251 Mha difference between total abundant country (including state devoted to permanent crops such as trees) and harvested area in 2009. These figures differ somewhat from the 299 Mha presented in Alexandratos and Bruinsma (2012), which adapted arable land and harvested land in a couple of ways. However, assuming that roughly 150 Mha were double-cropped for reasons discussed in a higher place, that means 400 Mha were not harvested at all.

• 46

  Siebert et al. (2010).

• fifty

  Craparo et al. (2015); Eitzinger et al. (2011); Ortiz et al. (2008); Teixeira et al. (2013).

• 51

  IPCC (2014); Semenov et al. (2012); Teixeira et al. (2013).

• 52

  World Banking concern (2012); Lobell et al. (2008).

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Source: https://research.wri.org/wrr-food/course/increase-food-production-without-expanding-agricultural-land-synthesis

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